Before you try to figure out what might happen in Ukraine, you should review the current status of hostilities. The Russian offensives in the North and Center of this Punished Country are not going as planned. In the north – in the vicinity of Kiev – because the Russians themselves have recognized it that way, even trying to hide the exhaustion of the combat units that were going to conquer the capital after a triumphal walk according to illusory plans. After a long, bloody month of war, Ukrainian counterattacks even managed to capture some ground So, we can believe the Russian statements even if they are suspect of their motives.
The Russian intentions to concentrate in Donbas and the offensive in the middle show that they have not achieved their goals. The Crimean beachhead is used. The south’s offensive has been a little more positiveDespite not being able to reach Odessa, they are grateful for their support. But the long-awaited corridor that connects Crimea with Donbas – thus complementing the bridge over the Kerch Strait – is about to be achieved when the martyred city of Mariupol.
Talks about a possible truce taking place in Istanbul suggest a certain optimism, which may be real for the Russian side or feigned if their plans do not go according to plan. It is worth considering the possibility of the conflict’s evolution given the current state of chiaroscuro. There are two possibilities for Russian conduct. Retreat to the north and be content with Mariupol’s corridor –thus giving up the conquest of Odessa– are sufficient or alternatively, that the announced withdrawal is a feint to You can take the time to reconstitute old units and re-conquer kyiv.. Personallly, I think the second is better. I’ll show you why.
The US’s most conservative estimate russian death toll These have been solved so far About 7,000. Using the ⅔ rule, we can estimate that it corresponds to about 21,000 wounded, prisoners and deserters, which would indicate casualties of 12% of the 180,000 troops that Putin has used for the invasion of him. Not all units are affected by the same wear. If we calculate that up to half of the units have been deployed to the front line – which is an estimate based on the poor logistics performance observed – we can double that percentage and calculate that the Russian Battle Groups have suffered between 20 and 24% of wear. This is the result. Each battalion with 700 men has lost approximately 140 troops This has meant that it is no longer an operational unit, especially in attack.
The key to understanding the evolution of war is time. Before you can predict the next scenario, there are certain elements that you need to know. How long does it take for a Russian combat unit to be fully reconstituted?What is the level of discontent in the Russian public opinion relative to its economic position? What about the Putin regime’s oligarch supporters? Bearing in mind that the rebound effect of economic sanctions also affects Western public opinion – and that we are democracies here – we must also fear discontent within the European NATO nations that we hope will be less than what the Russians are suffering ; but that will have to be considered for its possible negative influence on support for Ukraine. There is no limit to the time before Putin attempts again.
This is what I strongly believe. PutinIt has done a poor deal with its unwarranted invasions of Ukraine. He is likely to discredit Russia and take it away from his long-cherished vision of an Eurasian union that would run from Lisbon to Vladivostok. This vision represents Russian ideals, values and principles, but individual freedoms are lacking. This failure will not be confirmed. Everybody, but the Ukrainians especiallyUnder the extraordinary leadership of Zelensky We will suffer enough.