China will mediate in this war. Why is Beijing so reluctant?
China is not ready to be a mediator, as it implicitly supports Russia since the beginning. It is not clear, however, if Beijing actually seeks such a role. There is consensus that the Xi Jinping government doesn’t want to be involved in this war, for a variety of reasons.
Volodimir Zelenski (the Ukrainian president) assures that Moscow’s position is more realistic. Russia suggested a neutral model for Ukraine, similar to that of Austria or Sweden. It would be an open door to the end of war.
According to reports, Zelensky does not support a neutral Ukraine. Aside from the many sacrifices made by the Ukrainians, it is unclear that President Zelensky will convince them to accept a neutral Ukraine and that Russia will adhere to any agreement.
After this unprovoked war and illegal aggression, as well as the indiscriminate targeting civilians, I believe Ukraine will not accept a neutral status.
Is it possible that Ukraine will be divided by Vladimir Putin after the war?
While this may be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intention, Ukraine will likely launch an insurgency that would trap Russia for years. A puppet government in Ukraine would not be legitimate and Moscow would have to take control of large areas of the country. This is a difficult task considering the Russian Army’s achievements to date.
William Pomeranz is the Acting Director for the Kennan Institute of the Wilson Center.