Local authorities claim that at least 50 people were killed in the attack on Kramatorsk’s Ukrainian train station, which was located in eastern Ukraine. There were many people waiting for their evacuation.
Russia warned that it would end the first phase in its “military operations” in Ukraine. This will mean that operations in Donbas, the area where self-proclaimed separatist republics reside, would be centered. Moscow recognized these republics before the invasion of Ukraine. The expert Jason Bush analyzes for LA RAZÓN the keys to the course of the war in Ukrainian territory.
– After the massacre at the train station. What do you think the Russian offensive against the East will look like? What length of time can it last?
On this question, my expectations coincide with the comments of relevant Ukrainian and Western officials: “The battle for Donbas will be reminiscent of World War II, with large operations, maneuvers, the participation of thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, planes, artillery. According to Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, it will not be a small operation as Russia has prepared,” he said at a Brussels news conference.
He said that there was now a significant shift in the focus from the east to see troops moving away from Kiev to regroup, rearm, and resupply. This is an important phase of war.
It is important to remember that the new phase of war will likely be different from the original Russian offensives against kyiv. The initial offensives were too fast, often by paratroopers and lightly armed forces. They also had poor organization and support. Russian forces advanced too quickly, exceeding their supply lines and being outmaneuvered.
It looks like this time things will be more slow, deliberate, and focused. Russians will not repeat their mistakes. They will likely try to get more firepower and support to move forward, and will do so in slow and steady stages.
Similar to what happened in Mariupol, this is similar. Despite resistance from the local population, it appears that the Russians are slowly moving towards the city. This is due to their immense firepower.
The duration of the new campaign is very hard to predict. It’s possible that few people predicted a month ago that Mariupol would still stand strong after six weeks.
I hope the new Donbas campaign will last weeks and not just a few days. It should be weeks and not months. It is possible that I am wrong.
Although they may now be focusing on Kyiv, I believe they have learned their lesson. It is not easy to capture a city as large and well-defended, as the Russians proved to their cost.