Decaffeinated and overshadowed by the conflict in Ukraine, this election campaign was a strange one. Next Sunday’s battle will be for second placeHe was the main attraction in France’s first round.
All the polls give President Macron a comfortable win. It could represent around 28% vote intentionThe question is now who will challenge the presidency in round two on April 24. The demoscopy indicates that it will be the far-right Le Pen again, thus reissuing the duel of 2017, but the positive campaign dynamics of the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his continuous calls for the useful vote of the left could still give the bell next Sunday.
Easy is not possible, according to surveys.Le Pen has a margin of 6-7 pointsHowever, there is a steady increase in the concentration of the left-wing vote. the figure of Mélenchon could win the game. The tactic is easily understandable: Mélenchon is confident that in this final stretch a good part of the vote of the other left-wing candidates will be concentrating on his La Francia Insumisa, seeing that it is the only option that would prevent reissue of the Macron-Le Pen duel .
In this constellation of small percentages of the vote from the left-wing spectrum that Mélenchon wants to attract to himself is, according to the polls, 5% of the ecologists of Yannick Jadot is 4% of the communists and 2% of the socialists.. Mélenchon, once branded a radical and an accomplice of Latin American leaders such as Chávez or the Castros, has been converting his candidacy for some time to make it more attractive to the social democrat or ecologist voter. Or to put it another manner, Melenchon has been doing the same as Le Pen on extreme right, demonizing his own ambitions to win power.
This electoral scenario and Macron’s role of a tireless interlocutor during the war in Ukraine have given Macron an enormous boost. There are only two factors that will keep Trump from re-electing his mandate. These elections will be a surprise to all observers in France and in the European Union.The first is overconfidence, the second is the ability articulate an anti-Macron front. in the second round that Le Pen or Mélenchon can coordinate well making the voice of that France of malaise resound in Paris where the increase in fuel prices is the real headache and not the noise of the campaign.
Macron fears bothLast weekend, perhaps because of this, he called his voters to distrust polls that have him as a favorite at his great rally. He appealed for “general mobilization”, to defeat Le Pen today. He regretted that the “ultra speech” was dismissed and it has become less frightening. “Don’t believe polls saying it’s impossible. That it’s impossible. That it’s unthinkable. That the election has already been decided and everything will be okay.
Macron’s 2017 victory shattered the old alternation between conservative, traditional and socialist parties. It left a scenario that included a large Macronist core and two poles with radical alternatives. Le Pen’s strength has grown since then, thanks to the so called demonization and normalization strategy. This strategy was developed in the fiefdoms that experienced the yellow vests crisis which put the president on the ropes halfway through its term. On the other hand, Mélenchon has had to position himself as the winning leader of a nebula of left-wing candidatesHe was not even eligible to run for the presidency less than a month ago. Now, he must seduce the urban Social Democratic voter who he instilled fear and a similar level of fear to that of France’s forgotten France which has already given up to Le Pen.
These war-torn election results may not only be exciting for second place but also provide juicy political headlines for next Sunday. France’s established tripolar political sceneA traditional right that Macron still absorbs five years later. An interest in environmentalism suddenly left behind by the Ukraine crisis, and a socialist party that could be the most irrelevance.