The shock at the Russian-led massacre in Bucha and Irpin, which took place last week, was a major theme of the past week. The West responded with another round sanctions and over 200 Russian “diplomats”, including those from Spain, were expelled by EU countries. However, Russia’s support for war is still massive and unexpectedly so it appears that Russian society is more indoctrinated then German society under Adolf Hitler.
The state news agencies started publishing openly calling for the destruction of the Ukrainian people. Foreign policy “thinkers” argue in the West that Russia will be ‘forced to’ use its nuclear weapons if they are unable to. This war can be won using the conventional weapons.
The conflict’s timeline shows that Europe should be ready to discuss this issue for a while. One, the sanctions are affecting Russia’s economy very hard. As predicted, the March PMI index reading was just 37.7 in March compared with 50.8 in February. This signals a deeper decline in productive activity than the initial months of the pandemic.
To be long-lasting and visible, however, it will take at least one year for the Central Bank to have achieved some success in supporting the ruble. Furthermore, export flows are not greatly affected by Western restrictions. Without strong economic pressure, one should focus on Russian “cultural”, and “ideological”, perceptions about the war.
However, this incident ignited the worst nationalism sentiments in Russia and, many years later the then prime minster. Putin was the intellectual behind the demolition of two Moscow apartment blocks.Chechnya: Declaring a New War (Alexander LitvinenkoA former KGB officer who investigated the case was later poisoned in London by a polonium rich substance. The society was overwhelmingly supportive of renewed hostilities at the time. It was because the 1996 ceasefire was seen as humiliating and Chechnya, which had refused to sign the 1992 Federation Treaty, was considered to be part of the Russian Federation. Between 1999 and 2002 the Russian army defeated the Chechens and imposed a proKremlin government. The president was also installed. Putin was a national hero.
I think we’ll see something very similar today. Although the Russians have withdrawn their troops from Kyiv, they will regroup and continue to attack Kharkov, Donbas, and other areas. Russian society is turning into a real Nazi community these days, and even educated people openly express ideas that the Ukraine never existed, that it is an “integral part” of Russia, and that Ukrainians should become RussifiedAs they have been throughout the centuries under tsarist imperial control.
Although the Russian army seemed weak in the current fighting it was because the soldiers weren’t always told where they were going. They are now becoming aggressive and angry after weeks of losing and fighting. The Bucha massacre shows this. They are not soldiers but assassins obsessed with the idea that the once “brotherly” Ukrainian people should simply be wiped clean from their own land. These butchers, driven more by emotion than rationality, can become very dangerous.
Today, both European and Ukrainian leaders believe Russia has lost and the war can be ended by a new ceasefire. While I would love to be wrong, this is not my view. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will stopBoth sides now have much less to speak about and fewer points upon which to seek compromise. It could be that the murders in Bucha and other cities in Ukraine were intended to stop negotiations between Moscow & kyiv. Putin fears any meeting of President Zelensky. Russia is now preparing for a long-term war, for which neither Europe nor Ukraine are prepared.
*Special Advisor to the MEMRI Russian Media Studies Project. Director and founder of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies