As the war in Ukraine has eclipsed the official start to the most unusual presidential election campaign, France’s main rivals to President Macron are intensifying their political efforts to reach the goal. they need to be able to face the current president.Prior to the second round, he was more focused on his duties of head of state.
The polls clearly indicate, less than two weeks before the appointment with the polls, that the great unknown of these elections will be whether it will be the far-right Marine Le Pen or the left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon who will face the current tenant of the Elysee. A survey by Le Parisien released this weekend shows that the current head is leading the voting intentions with 28.5%. Le Pen has 17.5%. He would take about 3 points from Mélenchon, third in the ranking.
And the key to these elections will be in that narrow advantage, knowing that both Le Pen and Mélenchon are facing upward dynamics. She seems to have won the polemicist Éric Zemmour the hegemony of the extreme right and he has done the same with the rest of the candidacies of an atomized left.
The most likely scenario is a reissue in the second round of the 2017 duel between Macron & Le Pen. In this scenario, the same plan would be used in a new context. The war in Ukraine has given the president a chance to regain his popularity after a five-year period that was difficult for Macron. He has also been able to have a plebiscite manage the final stretch in the health crisis. There are good economic indicators and unemployment at an all-time low. And he is known as a tireless opponent in the war in Ukraine. The time has played a positive role in Macron’s favor, so crises such the yellow vests and strikes against his Reform Program already seem to be amortized. At least, for these elections.
Which one would win more votes for the president? Analysts are unable to answer this question without clear evidence. However, they do know that there is an interchangeable percentage that will vote for Macron. This has been increasing over the past five years.
The president, more focused on the international sphere than on the campaign, visited a popular neighborhood of Dijon, in eastern France, on Monday, and his big rally is scheduled for this coming Saturday at the La Défense Arena stadium in Paris, a room with capacity for 30,000 people. “Be careful with Le Pen”, Macron would have said according to the press to his advisers and close public officials so as not to lower his guard in the face of a possible repetition of the 2017 duel. , asked for the progressive and useful vote in Marseille this Sunday.
The leftist knows that accounts cannot be opened without the vote. This is despite the fact that it is dispersed among the various candidacies of an atomized Left. That is why, as the electoral date approaches, the ranks of the France Insumisa, Mélenchon’s party, multiply those calls for a useful vote towards environmentalist or socialist voters, but above all, those of the communist party, who led by Fabien Roussel they are at a historic 4% which could be decisive in preventing Mélenchon from going to the second round.
Eight men and four women, 12 people are aspiring to reach the Elysee. Behind the leading trio, formed by Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon, the conservative Valérie Pécresse appears already distant, with a downward campaign dynamic overshadowed by Macron; the far-right Éric Zemmour, whose flattery of Putin seems to take its toll, or the environmentalist Yannick Jadot, who has failed to place the climate emergency as a basic campaign issue. The most notable disaster is the one caused by the historic socialist party’s candidate Anne Hidalgo as mayor of Paris. Its polls are hardly relevant at 2%, and they condemn it to possible destruction.